Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Google Checkout: Just How Big?


Harvard's Clayton Christensen is the brains behind Google's disruptive plans for e-Commerce (Photo Credit: Forbes.com)




With the marketing launch of its Checkout product, Google has officially entered its second line of business. Though interrelated with the ads biz (the merchant user class of Checkout customers are also the biggest buyers of Adwords), make no mistake- this is different and this is big...no, make that HUGE.

Again, Google attacks a huge market with a classic disruptive strategy- taking the business that the big players ignore because it is difficult or conceptually small, then applying resources and an understanding of technology and directions to go big and take on the bigger players from below.

The technorati media hype about this has Google going after the PayPal boys with this business. I would submit that while PayPal is a target, eventually, the market is far bigger and more meaningful than that. This business is all about going after the cash register in your local store! The full integration of e-commerce with commerce. Google will make even the most ardent anti-tech people into significant participants in the new media economy just by doing what they already do every day.

When you shop at the local store and go through the checkout line, your transaction will go through Google servers, payments will process through Google bank accounts. Google will take a transaction fee.

Are they replacing Visa, MasterCard and American Express? Not yet, but they are the long term target. In fact, in the near term those businesses will prosper because of the ease the new buisness brings to commerce. But, litle by little, Google will move up the value chain....

In the short term Google is actually filling a gap that has long been a well known opportunity, offering an easy way to process payments to merchants selling to online customers AND and cheaper and easier way for bricks and mortar merchants to process credit cards. Google's plan is to offer an easier way to process all commercial transactions with web based technologies.

They are not the first to try this. CyberSource has been around for years and VeriSign has long held designs in this area. Even Microsoft has made a pass at this sector. The difference is that Google is giving real merchants a reason to adopt their system- discounts and advantages on promotions by tying the Adwords business to Checkout. Simple and brilliant. Almost as good as selling keywords.

The amazing thing is that once again, Google is not first mover. Just as in the case of Yahoo! and Overture, CyberSource is there first with technologies and systems. PayPal and Verisign may have some IP as well. But just as with the search keyword ad business, Google will steamroll its opposition and pay them big later in settling any IP lawsuits.

Someone (Yahoo! or AOL or Fox or a PE player like Elevation) should take out CyberSource now because Google will be paying them lots later.

Next up- how the Content Rights Players can leverage Google (Checkout, Adwords and Adsense) and win big quickly.

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