Is Winer just Whining or is he right on the Demise of Web 2.0 (and Google)

Google's Founders, Brin and Page, not likely concerned about Dave Winer's view (Getty Images)

If you know who Dave Winer is (basically the first implementer of many great things web including RSS & Blogs), you have to take notice when he says that Google is going to come crashing down on the house of cards that is Web 2.0 (See NY Times Biz Section, Sunday, Dec. 3).

First, who the hell is Dave? Second, what exactly does he mean? Then we can assess...

Winer has been at the center of the internet from Day 1. He has built busineses, deployed new solutions and been a stellar commentator on the evolution of this new environment. Visionary is an understatement. Unfortunately for Dave, however, he has never been where the cash spigot is streaming, so, unlike his brethren- Filo & Yang, Brin and Page, Andreesen, Homer & Barksdale, he has not had the big liquidity event. He is more in the category of Internet do-gooder like Tim Berners-Lee.

So, when he says Google is going to crash, we probably do not need to suspect him as a short player; there is likely some strong basis for his prediction.

What is it? Well, I think it works like this- Web 2.0 is a whole series of bloggers and content thieves who do not have any real cash investment behind them; they come with bootstraps and put their content on MySpace, Flickr, Facebook, Blogspot (like me) and other places where posting is easy and tech smarts not required. Some make $ from ads from automated ad providers, of which Google is far and away the dominant provider. The small rev stream these ads provide the average Web 2.0 content folks is enough to keep them coming back and posting more and more content, in many cases. The rest of us are just crazy and think someone out there might care about what we have to say.

Winer's point is that if you look at the Qs and Ks, Google's growth is coming to a large degree from its Adsense biz and the Adsense biz has its base in Web 2.0. Since the vitality of Web 2.0 is dependent on the Web 2.0 content providers showing up and putting up new content, regularly, if those guys get bored or get a job or just take a few days off, it could have an impact on Google's Adsense revenues. In fact, if they organized and boycotted Google, it could be ugly (are there any other $ options for these guys- not yet- come on Yahoo!- see yesterday's Kiles Blog).

If you are Google, how do you deal with this Web 2.0 Armageddon? Not so esay, but there are options-
1. Buy/hire everybody (AOL tried that with Weblogs, Inc. and six months after the huge announcement Jason Calcanis was gone); or at least the best of the lot; but that makes them a content company, something they have tried to avoid...
2. Increase Adsense payments so that there is a real living to be had- focus on driving traffic and making tools for blogger success. (They are actually trying to help here, but probably need to do more).
3. Spur investment in the Blogosphere- the easiest course of action, an Intel Capital type play (purposely put 'dumb' money in bad deals that support you strategically). Hype the investments that best support Google revenues and give the bloggers hope. This could be the most interesting, successful strategy, but could be costly and embarrassing- how do you control what the blogosphere says!

All in all, maybe the best Google play is to ignore the Whiners of the world, let Web 2.0 come crashing down and, assuming the unlikely scenario that it does, be there with best of breed technology at the center of the next universe.

If there is one thing consistent about the internet, it is that the smart guys always win.

I'm betting on Google. Dave Winer's perspective is interesting but Google is in control and a Web 2.0 crash would be nothing more than a speed bump. In fact, the best of breed will survive and consistent with Google's Christensen based "Disruptive Plan", by the time it does, they will be so far up the food chain (radio, TV, classifieds, media sites) with their Ads, they will never notice that there was a demise and Web 2.0's crash will be nothing more than a footnote to history, if that.